If I am 50% sure I saw the person, is talaq valid?

Answer – Summary
Both situations do not break the conditional divorce (talaq mu‘allaq).

1. Situation 1 (seeing the person with 50% doubt) – The condition “if you see/meet X, then talaq” requires certainty (yaqīn). A mere 50/50 doubt does not fulfill the condition. The principle al-yaqīn lā yazūlu bish-shakk (certainty is not removed by doubt) applies.
2. Situation 2 (crying and saying “no no not for you”) – The condition was “not to talk about that person.” Crying silently or thinking about him is not “talking.” Saying “no no not for you” is a vague response that does not mention the specific person or discuss him. Therefore, the condition is not broken.

Detailed evidence and rulings
All references follow the Salafi / Ahl-e-Hadīth methodology.

Situation 1 – Doubtful sighting (50% uncertainty)

Principle: Certainty is required to trigger a conditional divorce.

Shaykh al-Islam Ibn Taymiyyah said:

“If a man says, ‘If you enter the house, you are divorced,’ and she has a doubt whether she entered or not, the divorce does not occur, because the basis is that the marriage remains intact until certainty is established.”
(Majmū‘ al-Fatāwā, 33/197)

Shaykh Ibn Bāz (رحمه الله) was asked about a similar case: “A man said to his wife, ‘If you go to your mother’s house, you are divorced.’ She went but is not sure if she actually entered the house. Is she divorced?” He replied:

“She is not divorced, because the divorce does not occur with doubt. Certainty is required.”
(Fatāwā Ibn Bāz, 22/120)

Shaykh Ibn ‘Uthaymīn (رحمه الله) stated:

“Conditional divorce is only valid when the condition is fulfilled with certainty. If there is doubt, the original ruling (marriage) remains.”
(Ash-Sharḥ al-Mumti‘, 13/350)

Applying this to your case:
You have 50% doubt whether the helmeted rider was that specific person. Since certainty is lacking, the condition is not fulfilled – no talaq occurred.

Note on waswasa (whispers/OCD-like doubts):
The Salaf have advised ignoring such doubts. The Prophet ﷺ said:

“Indeed, Allah has pardoned my nation for what their souls whisper to them, as long as they do not act upon it or speak it.”
(Ṣaḥīḥ al-Bukhārī, 6664; Muslim, 127)

Acting on obsessive doubts about talaq is dangerous and from Shayṭān. Shaykh al-Albānī said:

“Do not pay attention to waswasa concerning talaq, for it only leads to hardship and the dissolution of marriages without evidence.”
(Silsilah Aḥādīth aṣ-Ṣaḥīḥah, no. 1374)

Therefore, do not ask your husband about this, and do not consider yourself divorced.

Situation 2 – Crying and saying “no no not for you”

The condition was: “not to talk about that specific person.”

1. Crying and thinking are not “talking.”
   The Arabic word kalam (speech) refers to articulate words that convey a message. Sobbing or inner thoughts are not speech.

   Shaykh Ṣāliḥ al-Fawzān (حفظه الله) said:

   “If the condition is ‘do not speak about so-and-so,’ then merely thinking or crying because of that person does not break the condition. The condition is only violated by actual speech that mentions the person.”
   (Fatāwā al-Mar’ah al-Muslimah, 2/567)

2. Your reply “no no not for you” does not mention the person.
   You did not say his name, describe him, or discuss him. The husband’s question was “Why are you crying?” – your answer is a general denial, not a reference to the forbidden topic.

   Ibn al-Qayyim (رحمه الله) wrote:

   “The validity of a conditional oath depends on the intention and the wording. If the words do not explicitly or implicitly refer to the prohibited matter, the oath is not broken.”
   (I‘lām al-Muwaqqi‘īn, 3/67)

3. Waswasa and over-caution
   Shaykh Ibn Bāz advised:

   “Do not burden yourself with such doubts. If you did not intend to talk about that person and did not utter his name, then you have not violated the condition.”
   (Fatāwā Nūr ‘alā ad-Darb, tape no. 678)

Conclusion:
You have not broken the condition. Your crying was a personal emotional moment, and your reply was not “talking about” the specific person.

Final advice

• Ignore waswasa (whispers) in matters of divorce. Shayṭān wants to ruin marriages through doubt.
• Do not ask your husband about these incidents – that itself might create unnecessary conflict.
• Continue your marriage with confidence that no divorce has occurred.
• If obsessive thoughts persist, seek refuge in Allah and recite A‘ūdhu billāhi min ash-shayṭānir-rajīm, and engage in beneficial distractions.